2026 Outlook — Cloudy, With a Chance for… Hope?

Part 2 of the 2026 Outlook Series

By Ross Bogen

A Cautious Optimism

The rays of hope we saw as 2025 came to a close are real — but they are shining through ominous clouds.

Hope is not the same as confidence.

While we should take heart in trends that are clearly positive, we must also recognize — and confront — the serious challenges that remain.

A Warning Against Complacency

On January 5, 2026, Robert Reich warned against what he described as a “kind of complacency” among friends encouraged by recent setbacks faced by Donald Trump.

Reich predicts that 2026 may be worse than 2025, precisely because Trump and his supporters understand that the midterm elections could sharply limit what they are able to do. This year, therefore, becomes their window to cash in and aggressively push their agenda.

Before things get better — which will not happen without continued effort and pressure — they may well get worse.

Keep that in mind.

The Democratic Party’s Deeper Problem

The most serious challenge ahead may not be Trump alone, but the current condition of the Democratic Party itself — weakened in ways that go beyond simply lacking power.

In a recent New York Times column titled “Why Does Trump Get Away With It?”, columnist Thomas Edsall outlines several structural reasons Democrats have struggled to effectively oppose Trump’s behavior.

These factors exist in addition to:

• A highly accommodating Supreme Court

• A largely submissive Republican Party

• Trump’s own shamelessness

• Widespread capitulation across much of civil society

Two Trends That Cripple Opposition

Edsall and a group of political scientists identify two major trends that have weakened Democratic resistance.

1. Nationalized Polarization

This form of polarization has:

• Disabled media accountability

• Prevented Democrats from delivering effective counter-narratives

• Enabled Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party

  
  

Educational polarization, in particular, has fueled suspicion among middle- and working-class voters that Democrats represent self-interested “cognitive elites.”

2. Loss of Credibility Through Cultural Orthodoxy

Edsall’s correspondent Sean Westwood of Dartmouth College argues Democrats have fallen into a rhetorical rut, making:

His core critique is sharp:

Trump loses support not because voters find his actions unconstitutional, Westwood argues, but because they directly harm people’s lives — through inflation, labor shortages, and economic instability.

A Fair Critique — With Caveats

Westwood’s rhetoric may be overstated and increasingly dated, but the underlying point is difficult to dismiss.

Recent Democratic election victories have often come from campaigns focused on practical consequences, not abstract warnings about authoritarianism.

There remains a temptation to attack Trump’s actions — from military misadventures in the Caribbean to foreign entanglements — as illegal or immoral, rather than wasteful, fraudulent, incompetent, and deeply damaging to U.S. interests.

That distinction matters.

Trump as a “Transformative” President

Edsall highlights a deeper historical concern by comparing Trump to past “transformative presidents” — leaders who dismantled existing political orders.

Citing Erik Schickler of University of California, Berkeley, Edsall notes that Trump stands apart in the extent of destruction he has wrought.

Political scientist Stephen Skowronek of Yale University reluctantly agrees, describing Trump’s presidency as:

Unlike past presidents who cleared space to build something new, Trump has shown no interest in reconstruction — only repudiation.

A Cornered Animal

Edsall closes with a dark irony, which brings us back to Robert Reich.

Trump’s recent setbacks, Reich warns, may make him more dangerous, not less — “like a cornered animal.”

But Reich does not end in despair. He issues a call to action:

Ten Things You Can Do in 2026

Reich urges readers to review his full essay — “10 Crucial Things You Can Do in 2026” — and offers the following priorities:

• Protect vulnerable immigrant communities

• Protect LGBTQ+ members of your community

• Demand resistance from your House and Senate representatives

• Help Democrats and Independents take back Congress in November

• Frame America’s 250th anniversary around constitutional duty, not loyalty to Trump

• Support progressive initiatives locally and statewide

• Demonstrate against authoritarianism

• Participate in strategic boycotts

• Support litigation efforts opposing Trump

• Spread the truth

  
  

If you do nothing else in 2026, do this.

Closing

Let’s be inspired by hope — and get to work.

Author

Ross Bogen

Club Member, Democratic Club of Greater Tracy