Trump’s Post-SOTU Economy…or Less Money, Mo’ Problems

On February 24th, 2026, Donald Trump delivered the first State of the Union address of his second term. Besides setting a record for being the longest ever given by any president since these sorts of things have been tracked, it also set a record for lies per minute. In typical Trump fashion, a lot of ketchup was thrown at the wall to see what might stick...and a lot has happened since that evening in late February. Let’s examine just a few key points, shall we?

Jobs Created vs. Jobs Lost

Before February 2026, the U.S. labor market was already contracting with total non-farm payroll employment dropping by 92,000 jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in January. The most significant declines were driven by manufacturing, construction, and healthcare employment. Private education/health services fell 34,000, while leisure/hospitality lost 27,000. As a result, January job “gains” were revised downward to +126,000. And this was going into the STOU…

As of March, economists are projecting a mixed bag. The general anticipation was trending toward a little improvement, but the extended government shutdown (at the 44-day mark as of this writing, the longest funding lapse in U.S. history), reports of Trump looking at increasing the Section 122 tariffs to 15% (from 10%), and the continuing effects spawned by his non-Congressionally approved war on Iran, that outlook is looking shakier and shakier with each passing day.

Iran

Trump’s intelligence-lacking war with Iran is by far the biggest factor in determining the health of the U.S. economy moving forward. Since Trump and his loyal lapdogs at the Department of Defense – joined and encouraged by Israel - instigated the war on February 28th, launched while Iran was negotiating with the U.S. over their nuclear aspirations (something that had already been hammered out, but Trump decided to rip up the agreement the Obama Administration has already negotiated and concluded in 2015…), killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other Iranian officials as well as inflicting dozens of civilian casualties. The war – predicted by Trump to be a short “excursion,” but has stretched into lasting for the past five weeks at this writing – has resulted in Iran closing of the Strait of Hormuz, through which travels approximately 20% of the planet’s total oil consumption (around 20 to 21 million barrels per day). As a result of the Strait’s closing by Iran, the global economy has seen a triggering of soaring energy costs, severe supply chain constraints for petrochemicals and fertilizers, accelerated inflation, with Asian importers and increased global food prices particularly affected. Oil prices have increased over 40% from pre-war levels. For the week ending 04/03/2026, gas prices have increased roughly an additional .10 to .14 cents (over and above the $0.80 per gallon it was prior), surpassing $4.00 per gallon, with diesel averaging over $5.40 per gallon. A prolonged closure threatens to cause severe economic shortages, curtail industrial activity, and spark deep global stock market declines.

The SOTU After the SOTU Is a Problem

Trump spent his 2026 SOTU touting his “wins,” of which few could be confirmed. The post-SOTU timeframe can best be described as problematic. Deep divisions are pervasive with a 53% majority of Americans describing the state of the union as “not strong,” and 54% stating that the country is headed in the wrong direction. While Trump claimed he had created a “roaring economy,” but polls have found that 72% of people rated economic conditions as only “fair” or “poor.” 78% of those polled view the current political climate as a serious threat to democracy, and Trump’s approval rating on handling the economy has dropped to a dismal 39%.

The Bottom Line

2026 has not worked out too well for the Trump Administration. Between the crashing economy, deepening political divides, the fallout from his arrogant statements about Greenland, a blockade and threats against Cuba, possible war crimes related to operations in Venezuela and the war in Iran (so much for being the “No More Wars President”…), gas and grocery prices skyrocketing, and fissures in his own party appearing on an almost daily basis, Trump is not having a very good year…and its only April of Year Two of his second term.

Strap in, kids. Its gonna be a bumpy ride until we get to the November midterms…