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Post-Election Forecast – Cloudy, With A Chance Of An End-Of-Days Deluge
Ross Bogen ·
No topic in political writing is riskier than election predictions – especially within a few weeks of an election – with publication just a few days before. Accordingly, this article focuses on what might happen next, in the months after the mid-term congressional elections and up to the opening of the 120th Congress on January 3, 2027. Because the detailed outcome of the voting is obviously unknown as I write this, let’s make a key assumption: the Democrats win enough races to take control of the House, with a modest majority, which is more than likely. For purposes of argument, let’s set aside the Senate results. This is partly a matter of superstition – I don’t want to jinx it – but more that it doesn’t directly affect the scenario below for the House. Assuming, also, that you’ve been paying attention to the course of this election, you’ve probably heard some variation of a “doomsday scenario,” in which by nefarious means, Trump and soon-to-be ex-Speaker Mike Johnson connive to deny rightful Representatives-elect (Democrats, of course) their seats in the House. How could that happen? Would it even work…and for how long?
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